Why you should ignore Carolyn Goodman's poll

A bit of controversy erupted last week in the mayor's race (I know, shit breaks out every other day) over some dueling polls. Chris Giunchigliani's campaign released a poll conducted by Beneson Strategy Group showing the race statistically tied. Carolyn Goodman's campaign was forced to release their own Magellan Strategies conducted poll--after spending the weekend telling reporters they can't release the numbers because they're so good no one would vote--that showed Carolyn up 53-31.

Freelancer Steve Friess was skeptical of Chris G's poll, airing his frustration on Twitter that Goodman's numbers weren't being reported as breathlessly as Giunchigliani's. But anyone familiar with Magellen Strategies knows they have a poor reputation. And that could explain why no one is giving Carolyn's polling numbers any credibility.

Take for example:

“Tom Tancredo will become Colorado's next governor,” predicted David Flaherty, president and CEO of Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, a Louisville, CO, pollster that works for Republicans around the country.

That statement was made Friday before the 2010 gubernatorial election in Colorado. Democrat John Hickenlooper went on to beat Tancredo 51-36 four days later. Magellan also predicted Meg Whitman would win the governor's race in California. She lost to Democrat Jerry Brown.

Another "oopsie" in 2010 by Magellan, they had to issue an apology for their flawed polling in the Kentucky senate race. Their polls showed Republican candidate Rand Paul beating his closest competitor by 20-30 points. What they forgot to mention: the poll they conducted did not mention any candidate but Rand Paul. Rand Paul went on to win the election 55-44.

In 2010 Magellan released a flurry of poorly conducted polls, all benefiting Republican candidates. Their website at the time had the tag line: Magellan Strategies Helping Republicans Win Elections. Magellan is on the payroll of the Republican National Committee and Koch-funded astroturf conservative organization, Americans for Prosperity.

I've been told that Magellan's bad results are due to bad methodology. One person was polled by Magellan at an office number. They pollster did not ask for a specific person nor did they ask any screening questions ("Are you registered to vote in Las Vegas?") either. Magellan is simply a disaster.

I should start my own polling firm. Get paid tens of thousands of dollars to produce crap? Light Skinned Polling is open for business.

But hey, if you want to trust Magellan, be my guest.

Everyone else who lives in a place called reality, keep knocking those doors and making those calls. It's making a difference.

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Laura

#OscarsWife doesn't know anything

Maybe the title is a a little unfair, but it seems that every time Carolyn "Oscar's Wife" Goodman is asked a question the response is either I don't know (re: DREAM Act) or some strange off-topic answer.



Carolyn Goodman is not good with details or facts. Perhaps she was too busy molding the young minds of the elite class' offspring to pick up a newspaper or watch the news and actually learn something about the outside world and how it might affect the city she now wants to be mayor of.

Local journalist Steve Friess was one of the first to expose her staggering ignorance. Despite claiming to be an educator and friend to Las Vegas' Latino community, she had no clue what the DREAM Act was and had no official position (and seemed to have no knowledge of) Las Vegas' Domestic Partnership law or gay marriage in general.

And now #OscarsWife has inserted her foot in her mouth once again.

Given a chance by Univision to clarify her DREAM Act remarks, she claims that students can find a pathway to citizenship by participating in the Teach for America program.



Teach for America does not provide you with a pathway to citizenship. Right now, the only way a non-US citizen can became a "legal" citizen is by going through the US' archaic, drawn out citizenship process.

From Teach for America's website:

About Us

Teach For America is the national corps of outstanding recent college graduates of all academic majors and career interests who commit two years to teach in urban and rural public schools and become leaders in the effort to expand educational opportunity.

Our mission is to build the movement to eliminate educational inequity by enlisting our nation's most promising future leaders in the effort. Learn more about who we are looking for.

In the short run, our corps members work relentlessly to ensure that more students growing up today in our country's lowest-income communities are given the educational opportunities they deserve. In the long run, our alumni are a powerful force of leaders working from inside education and from every other sector to effect the fundamental changes needed to ensure that all children have an equal chance in life. Learn more about our impact.

Nothing about citizenship. At all.

I attended almost all of the mayoral debates during the primary, and I noticed whenever Chris Giunchigliani talked about legislation or ordinances she worked on, #OscarsWife would roll her eyes or pass a look to her staff as if to say "Now here she goes with all those facts and shit"

Why the hate from OscarsWife?

Every time Chris G talks about her experience, OscarsWife if forced to admit that she has none. Every time Chris G describes in detail a bill, proposed legislation or policy, OscarsWife is exposed as not just a political neophyte, but a Sarah Palineqsue character who has no knowledge of current events and no ability to articulate any of the little knowledge she does have.

A busy 24 hours in Nevada politics

Let's see: Republicans in the legislature are whining, Sen Rhoades is going rogue, Chris G is running for mayor and apparently so is our current mayor Oscar Goodman's wife, Carolyn.

Steve Sebelius' has two blog entries over at Slash Politics on the Las Vegas mayoral race. This kind of stuff only happens in Vegas:

“The more I thought about it, the more there really was no question in my mind,” Carolyn Goodman said in a brief interview this morning.

“We woke up this morning, and Oscar said, ‘Don’t do it.’ And I said, ‘Interesting,’” Carolyn Goodman said. “And I said, ‘I’m doing it,’ so he said, ‘Go for it, girl.’”

[snip]

She joins Clark County Commissioners Larry Brown and Chris Giunchigliani as well as Las Vegas Councilman Steve Ross as the front runners in the race.

HPIC Jon Ralston posts a letter from the Republican leadership in the Nevada legislature. Seems like after nearly a full week of Nevadans sharing their budget cut horror stories, our friends on the right are crying uncle, and looking to make someone else the bad guy. Misery loves company.

And speaking of Ralston and #LVMayor, in a tweet he tags Chris G as a favorite, based on what, I have no idea. But it is peculiar considering three months ago he was calling out Chris G for mayor supporters as "suckers".


Andrew Davey, the Nevada Progressive, sees a possible breakthrough on the GOP side of the Nevada Legislature as Sen Rhoades shakes off the zombie Republican "noooo neeeww taxessss" trance:

Dean Rhoads, the state’s senior senator, became the first Republican lawmaker to publicly break with Gov. Brian Sandoval, saying he thinks the state will need to raise taxes to balance the budget.

Rhoads, who is serving his final year in the Legislature because of term limits, told the Sun that cuts in education and social services in Sandoval’s budget are too deep.

“There will have to be deep cuts like Sandoval proposed, and tax and fee increases,” Rhoads said Tuesday. “We’re going to have to do a combination.” [...]

If you care about Nevada politics, Desert Beacon is a daily must-read. This entry breaks down the logical fallacies in a letter penned by Republican leaders in the legislature:

In short, it is the Nevada Republican Party that is calling for the maintenance of the status quo. After all they have a budget proposal that "that forces government to get more out of less rather than one that increases spending, cripples our economy, kills job growth." This is little more than a succinct restatement of the mantras associated with the "Supply Side Hoax," or as George H.W. Bush liked to call it -- Voodoo Economics.

Justin McAffee of The Nevada View calls Nevada Republicans out for claiming (*cough*LYING*cough*) Nevadans pay high taxes:

As the 2011 Nevada Legislative Session begins next week, interest groups and politicians will be arguing over whether Nevada’s taxes are too low or too high. There is a strong segment of local conservatives and Republicans who think that Nevada’s taxes are too high. The evidence and consensus among academics and think tanks (liberal and conservative) say that Nevada’s taxes are among the lowest in the nation.

And, a blog post isn't complete without Nevada Scandalmongers's wonderful photoshops:


--
Laura
laurakmmartin@gmail.com

An update

An update to this entry



--
Laura
laurakmmartin@gmail.com

Katie Duncan for mayor ?

The campaigning never ends in Nevada. A little more than a month after Harry Reid triumphantly won re-election, all the yard signs and billboards have come down, only to be replaced by by those running in the Spring 2011 municipal elections. Katherine "Katie" Duncan held a press conference today to announce her candidacy for mayor, and its to her benefit that no press showed up.

The Aruba Hotel on Las Vegas Boulevard is just south of Charleston and sandwiched between Downtown Las Vegas' ubiquitous wedding chapels and cheap motels. Pictures inside the lobby remind you of the boom period of Old Vegas, when the mob ruled, money and liquor flowed freely, girls were fast and loose and Negroes had to find somewhere other than the strip to spend the night.

The building itself was colder than the 30 degree weather and unforgivably brisk wind outside. The press conference was held in the hotel's nightclub that was so dark that yes, I'll admit it, I ran into a support beam. I don't think this is the impression Duncan would want to leave our political press corps with: less than a dozen supporters in a dark room, huddling together for body warmth.

Duncan is not the only candidate in the race. Commissioner Larry Brown and Councilman Steve Ross also want to replace our garish and termed out mayor, Oscar Goodman. Unfortunately for Ross, some voters think of him as just another "union hack". He's claimed his union ties and city hall job don't pose a conflict of interest, but even bleeding-heart union-loving Liberals like me think his situation is shady.

Larry Brown has problems of his own. As commissioner he recently voted "NO" to approve changes to the Coroner's Inquest process. Changes that would give victim's families more rights and access during the inquest process and create the position of an ombudsperson. He voted no, even after telling Hispanic's In Politics meeting attendees he'd vote yes. I don't think a vote to protect police officers from the families of the victims they've killed will go over too well with Latino and Black voters.

Duncan would be the first first African American elected mayor of Las Vegas. Her name is synonymous with Ward 5 which covers most of the predominately Black and Latino historical West Las Vegas. She didn't mention her race, in her speech she stuck to palatable topics like homelessness, Veterans, neighborhood revitalization and "green projects" to create jobs.

Interestingly, she claims she wants to "continue the vision" of Mayor Goodman. The same mayor she's bumped heads with for wanting to build a wall through F and D Streets, essentially closing the the West Side off (Berlin style) from the rest of Las Vegas. And who could forget Mayor Goodman attacking President Obama going so far as to tell him he's not welcome in Las Vegas. While the "vision" may be about the revitalization of Downtown Las Vegas, part of the F and D Street project was part of Mayor Goodman's revitalization. But, Duncan's cloudy message and unspectacular press conference isn't the least of her worries: she's tapped Aloha Consulting to help her with her race.

Aloha Consulting is headed by Johnny Jackson, the blond haired, blue eyed former boxer who claims to be a native Hawaiian and representative of their government. Jackson says Duncan would be the 77th Aloha Consulting candidate to win. That is impressive for someone who says they've been in Las Vegas for only four years. However, his website only lists 23 candidates under "Nevada clients" and his list of "our candidates for the 2010 election" is different from the list of "Aloha Consulting candidates who won their races in 2010".

Jackson's biggest transgression: he is a birther.

In an email I've obtained Jackson claims President Obama wasn't born in Hawaii and his birth certificate is forged. Jackson's Positions on Issues PAC unsuccessfully tried to retire Senator Harry Reid. Members notoriously showed up to several Reid events in 2010 with his Aloha Consulting crew dressed in Sharron Angle t-shirts.

This is who Duncan thinks can help her win the Mayorship in an overwhelmingly Democratic city?


ETA: Thanks to Ms Duncan's correction below regarding Jan Jones. The mistake has been fixed. In response to Mr Jackson, it's not libel when you're repeating what someone says.

And I want to make it clear, I have nothing against Ms Duncan. I have admired her since I moved to Las Vegas in 2007 and I was excited to see she's be running for mayor. I was disappointed in her choice of campaign consultant and by how poorly put together her press conference was. She deserves better.

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Laura
laurakmmartin@gmail.com