Why you should ignore Carolyn Goodman's poll

A bit of controversy erupted last week in the mayor's race (I know, shit breaks out every other day) over some dueling polls. Chris Giunchigliani's campaign released a poll conducted by Beneson Strategy Group showing the race statistically tied. Carolyn Goodman's campaign was forced to release their own Magellan Strategies conducted poll--after spending the weekend telling reporters they can't release the numbers because they're so good no one would vote--that showed Carolyn up 53-31.

Freelancer Steve Friess was skeptical of Chris G's poll, airing his frustration on Twitter that Goodman's numbers weren't being reported as breathlessly as Giunchigliani's. But anyone familiar with Magellen Strategies knows they have a poor reputation. And that could explain why no one is giving Carolyn's polling numbers any credibility.

Take for example:

“Tom Tancredo will become Colorado's next governor,” predicted David Flaherty, president and CEO of Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, a Louisville, CO, pollster that works for Republicans around the country.

That statement was made Friday before the 2010 gubernatorial election in Colorado. Democrat John Hickenlooper went on to beat Tancredo 51-36 four days later. Magellan also predicted Meg Whitman would win the governor's race in California. She lost to Democrat Jerry Brown.

Another "oopsie" in 2010 by Magellan, they had to issue an apology for their flawed polling in the Kentucky senate race. Their polls showed Republican candidate Rand Paul beating his closest competitor by 20-30 points. What they forgot to mention: the poll they conducted did not mention any candidate but Rand Paul. Rand Paul went on to win the election 55-44.

In 2010 Magellan released a flurry of poorly conducted polls, all benefiting Republican candidates. Their website at the time had the tag line: Magellan Strategies Helping Republicans Win Elections. Magellan is on the payroll of the Republican National Committee and Koch-funded astroturf conservative organization, Americans for Prosperity.

I've been told that Magellan's bad results are due to bad methodology. One person was polled by Magellan at an office number. They pollster did not ask for a specific person nor did they ask any screening questions ("Are you registered to vote in Las Vegas?") either. Magellan is simply a disaster.

I should start my own polling firm. Get paid tens of thousands of dollars to produce crap? Light Skinned Polling is open for business.

But hey, if you want to trust Magellan, be my guest.

Everyone else who lives in a place called reality, keep knocking those doors and making those calls. It's making a difference.

--
Laura

#OscarsWife doesn't know anything

Maybe the title is a a little unfair, but it seems that every time Carolyn "Oscar's Wife" Goodman is asked a question the response is either I don't know (re: DREAM Act) or some strange off-topic answer.



Carolyn Goodman is not good with details or facts. Perhaps she was too busy molding the young minds of the elite class' offspring to pick up a newspaper or watch the news and actually learn something about the outside world and how it might affect the city she now wants to be mayor of.

Local journalist Steve Friess was one of the first to expose her staggering ignorance. Despite claiming to be an educator and friend to Las Vegas' Latino community, she had no clue what the DREAM Act was and had no official position (and seemed to have no knowledge of) Las Vegas' Domestic Partnership law or gay marriage in general.

And now #OscarsWife has inserted her foot in her mouth once again.

Given a chance by Univision to clarify her DREAM Act remarks, she claims that students can find a pathway to citizenship by participating in the Teach for America program.



Teach for America does not provide you with a pathway to citizenship. Right now, the only way a non-US citizen can became a "legal" citizen is by going through the US' archaic, drawn out citizenship process.

From Teach for America's website:

About Us

Teach For America is the national corps of outstanding recent college graduates of all academic majors and career interests who commit two years to teach in urban and rural public schools and become leaders in the effort to expand educational opportunity.

Our mission is to build the movement to eliminate educational inequity by enlisting our nation's most promising future leaders in the effort. Learn more about who we are looking for.

In the short run, our corps members work relentlessly to ensure that more students growing up today in our country's lowest-income communities are given the educational opportunities they deserve. In the long run, our alumni are a powerful force of leaders working from inside education and from every other sector to effect the fundamental changes needed to ensure that all children have an equal chance in life. Learn more about our impact.

Nothing about citizenship. At all.

I attended almost all of the mayoral debates during the primary, and I noticed whenever Chris Giunchigliani talked about legislation or ordinances she worked on, #OscarsWife would roll her eyes or pass a look to her staff as if to say "Now here she goes with all those facts and shit"

Why the hate from OscarsWife?

Every time Chris G talks about her experience, OscarsWife if forced to admit that she has none. Every time Chris G describes in detail a bill, proposed legislation or policy, OscarsWife is exposed as not just a political neophyte, but a Sarah Palineqsue character who has no knowledge of current events and no ability to articulate any of the little knowledge she does have.